Author: Abdullah Ucar; Seyma Arslan; Muhammed Yusuf Ozdemir
Title: Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand In Turkey, A Modelling Study Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: cut3vf2c_10
Snippet: The ratio of deaths in the total infected population is identified in the literature as Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) (15) . There may be a time shift bias in the estimations based on the number of deaths. For more accurate estimates, the number of deaths observed on a given day should not be compared to the number of infectious people occur on the same day, instead, it should be compared to the day the infection started (16) . Thus, in this dim.....
Document: The ratio of deaths in the total infected population is identified in the literature as Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) (15) . There may be a time shift bias in the estimations based on the number of deaths. For more accurate estimates, the number of deaths observed on a given day should not be compared to the number of infectious people occur on the same day, instead, it should be compared to the day the infection started (16) . Thus, in this dimension of the study, the number of infected people was estimated by using death numbers based on IFR. According to the studies, the time elapsed from symptom to death is about 18 days. (15) . The number of infected people was estimated with a delay of 18 days, and the remaining days were projected with a quadratic growth curve which has the highest R 2 value (0,9936). This study used the average IFR (0.66% [0.39-1.33] ) and age-specific IFR values which is adjusted for the United Kingdom and the United States in ICL modeling based on calculations by Verity et al. (15) .
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