Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand In Turkey, A Modelling Study

Abdullah Ucar; Seyma Arslan; Muhammed Yusuf Ozdemir

The first dimension of the study is to nowcast the actual number of infected people using the IFR. In the estimation of the actual number of cases, the case fatality rate (CFR) and IFR concepts are often confused. The CFR refers to the ratio of the number of deaths in a given time segment to diagnosed cases. However, this rate includes only those who are admitted to the hospital and who have been identified, not the proportion of real infected people in the community. If perfect conditions were observed and all patients could be followed, how many infected people would die is expressed by IFR. (15) . For this reason, it is more appropriate the use of IFR in the estimation of the final death numbers and the use of the CFR in the estimation of the death numbers in a time section. (16) . In a study conducted in 1334 cases in China, agespecific IFR rates were calculated. (15) . In the ICL report, these values were calibrated for the UK and US population. In this study, the rates in ICL report has also applied for the Turkey population.