Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)

Willem G Odendaal

In this example let's raise R r . Again assume a homogenous population that can be divided in N s homogenous segments of varying sizes. Next let's asssume that there are exactly three possible reproductive numbers for the virus, R oh , R om , and R os where R oh > R om > R os . For example, R oh might be the rate at which herd immunity occurs, R om the reproduction number with moderate mitigation measures in place, and R os when stringent mitigation measures are imposed. Finally, we'll assume that there are only three possible states that each of the segments can be in. In the initial state the virus infects the population of each segment with R os . Once mitigation is relaxed to moderate levels in a specific segment, it switches to the unmitigated state with R o = R h .