Prevalence of COVID-19 in Adolescents and Youth Compared with Older Adults in States Experiencing Surges

Rumain, B. T.; Schneiderman, M.; Geliebter, A.

PURPOSE: There has been considerable controversy regarding susceptibility of adolescents (10-19 years) and youth (15-24 years) to COVID-19. A number of studies have reported that adolescents are significantly less susceptible than older adults. Summer 2020 provided an opportunity to examine data on prevalence since after months of lockdowns, with the easing of restrictions, people were mingling, leading to surges in cases. METHODS: We examined data from six U.S. states experiencing surges in the number of cases to determine prevalence of COVID-19, and two other measures, related to prevalence in adolescents and youth as compared to older adults. The two other measures were: Percentage of cases observed in a given age group / by the percentage of cases expected based on population demographics; and percentage deviation, or [(% observed- % expected)/ % expected] x100. RESULTS: Prevalence of COVID-19 for adolescents and for youth was significantly greater than for older adults (p<.00001), as was percentage observed / percentage expected (p<.005). The percentage deviation was significantly greater in adolescents/youth than in older adults (p<0.00001) when there was an excess of observed cases over what was expected, and significantly less when observed cases were fewer than expected (p<0.00001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results are contrary to previous findings that adolescents are less susceptible than older adults. The findings have implications for school re-openings. The age groups 10-19 and 15-24 are students in middle school, high school, college, and the first two years of professional/graduate school. The high prevalence in these age groups would argue against school re-openings in the near future.