Geographic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Lombardy (Italy) during the early phase

Micheli, V.; Rimoldi, S. G.; Romeri, F.; Comandatore, F.; Mancon, A.; Gigantiello, A.; Brilli, M.; Mileto, D.; Pagani, C.; Lombardi, A.; Gismondo, M. R.; Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, Virology and Diagnostic of Bioemergencies Group

The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy has been dominated by two large clusters of outbreaks in Northern part of the peninsula, source of alarming and prolonged infections in Lombardy region, in Codogno and Bergamo areas especially. The aim of the study was to expand understanding on the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the affected Lombardy areas. To this purpose, twenty full length genomes were collected from patients addressing to several Lombard hospitals from February 20th to April 4th, 2020. The obtained genome assemblies, available on the GISAD database and performed at the Referral Center for COVID-19 diagnosis, identified 2 main monophyletic clades, containing 9 and 52 isolates, respectively. The molecular clock analysis estimated a clusters divergence approximately one month before the first patient identification, supporting the hypothesis that different SARS-CoV-2 strains spread all over the world at different time, but their presence became evident only in late February along with Italian epidemic emergence. Therefore, the epidemiological reconstruction carried out by this work highlights multiple inputs of the virus into its initial circulation in Lombardy Region. However, a phylogenetic reconstruction robustness will be improved when other genomic sequences will be available, in order to guarantee a complete epidemiological surveillance.