Mitigating COVID-19 outbreak via high testing capacity and strong transmission-intervention in the United States

Shi Chen; Qin Li; Song Gao; Yuhao Kang; Xun Shi

At the beginning of the simulation, March 1st, only a few states had non-zero confirmed cases. The true numbers of exposed people and unreported cases on that day, however, are unknown. These two numbers are also the state variables that need to be inferred to using the collected data. On March 1, we put a non-informative prior with range [0, 500] and For forecasting, we performed scenario studies of two types. First, we ran the mathematical model by applying the initial data obtained as of March 20 into the future for the next 40 days, but with different configurations of (b, r, α t ). The simulation results out of this setting were then compared with those from the setting that the three parameters remained unchanged for each state. To quantify and visualize the difference, we compared the increase of the percentage of 6 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.