Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail

Wolfgang Bock; Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Thomas Goetz; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; Barbara Pabjan; Tomasz Ozanski; Ewaryst Rafajlowicz; Wojciech Rafajlowicz,; Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz; Sara Ryfczynska; Ewa Szczurek; Piotr Szymanski

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043109 doi: medRxiv preprint In Figure 5 we present results for additional scenarios which were only simulated for the city of Wroc law. Figure 5a shows for various parameters combinations of R* and q -the probability for mild symptom patients to get tested -the prevalence after 200 days averaged over 10 independent simulations for each parameter pair. R* refers here to the baseline scenario without quarantine, that is R*=2.34c. It should be noted that the true mean number of out-household secondary cases in the quarantine scenario is less than R* and depends on q. The value q=0 corresponds to the base setting described above. Again, there is a rather narrow band of values for which mitigation is possible. In Figure 5b the blue colors indicate the average number of days after which the ICU threshold was surpassed. Parameter combinations where after 200 days less than 10 active cases were found are marked in white and correspond to subcritical progression. The yellow fields correspond to parameter combinations where neither of the first two criterion are fulfilled. For details see Appendix B. Therefore the parameter combinations for a sucessfull overcritical mitigation are limited within the yellow fields.