Variables influencing radiology volume recovery during the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

Madhuripan, Nikhil; Man-Ching Cheung, Helen; Alicia Cheong, Li Hsia; Jawahar, Anugayathri; Willis, Marc; Larson, David B.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced radiology volumes across the country as providers have decreased elective care in order to minimize the spread of infection and free up health care delivery system capacity. Following the stay-at-home order in our county, imaging volumes at our institution decreased to approximately 46% of baseline volumes, similar to the experience of other radiology practices. Given the substantial differences in severity and timing of the disease in different geographic regions, estimating resumption of radiology volumes will be one of the next major challenges for radiology practices. We hypothesize that there are 6 major variables that will likely predict radiology volumes: (1) severity of disease in the local region, including potential subsequent “waves” of infection, (2) lifting of government social distancing restrictions, (3) patient concern regarding risk of leaving home and entering imaging facilities, (4) management of pent up demand for imaging delayed during the acute phase of the pandemic, including institutional capacity, (5) impact of the economic downturn on health insurance and ability to pay for imaging, and (6) radiology practice profile reflecting amount of elective imaging performed, including type of patients seen by the radiology practice such as emergency/inpatient/outpatient mix and sub-specialty types. We encourage radiology practice leaders to use these and other relevant variables to plan for the coming weeks and to work collaboratively with local health system and governmental leaders to help ensure that needed patient care is restored as quickly as the environment will safely permit.