Lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic: A case study from Indian cities shows insignificant effects on urban air quality

Lalwani, Asha Gautam Sneha

The influence of reduction in emissions on the inherent temporal characteristics of PM2.5 and NO2 concentration time series in six urban cities of India is assessed by computing the Hurst exponent using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) during the lockdown period (March 24–April 20, 2020) and the corresponding period during the previous two years (i.e., 2018 and 2019). The analysis suggests the anticipated impact of confinement on the PM2.5 and NO2 concentration in urban cities, causing low concentrations. It is observed that the original PM2.5 and NO2 concentration time series is persistent but filtering the time series by fitting the autoregressive process of order 1 on the actual time series and subtracting it changes the persistence property significantly. It indicates the presence of linear correlations in the PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations. Hurst exponent of the PM2.5 and NO2 concentration during the lockdown period and previous two years shows that the inherent temporal characteristics of the short-term air pollutant concentrations (APCs) time series do not change even after withholding the emissions. The meteorological variations also do not change over the three time periods. The finding helps in developing the prediction models for future policy decisions to improve urban air quality across cities.