Author: Sarah F. McGough; Michael A. Johansson; Marc Lipsitch; Nicolas A. Menzies
Title: Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing: A flexible, generalizable model for real-time epidemic tracking Document date: 2019_6_7
ID: 6kq0ptlg_68
Snippet: The average log score across all prediction weeks was computed for all models to assess nowcast performance. The exponentiated average log score yields a nowcast score that can be interpreted as the average probability assigned to the bin corresponding to the true number of cases, and is a metric for model comparison purposes used in several other forecast contexts (22, 23) . In this paper, we present the exponentiated average log score and refer.....
Document: The average log score across all prediction weeks was computed for all models to assess nowcast performance. The exponentiated average log score yields a nowcast score that can be interpreted as the average probability assigned to the bin corresponding to the true number of cases, and is a metric for model comparison purposes used in several other forecast contexts (22, 23) . In this paper, we present the exponentiated average log score and refer to this as the average score.
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