COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: By January 31, 2020, at Least 1.5 Daily Infected Passengers Were Originating in China

Mouton, Christopher A.; Hanson, Russell Grissom Adam R.; Godges, John P.; Corporation, Rand

The COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization (CAT-V) tool combines COVID-19 case data from Johns Hopkins University and International Air Transport Association air travel data to examine COVID-19 virus transmission as a result of commercial air travel. Using the CAT-V tool, the authors estimate the rate of COVID-19 transmission through commercial air travel from China. By January 31, 2020 there were at least 1.5 infected air travel passengers coming from China each day. Eight countries were identified with the highest risk of COVID-19 infection from China air travel on January 24, 2020: Japan, Thailand, South Korea, United States, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore, and Malaysia. As of January 31, 2020, these eight countries had the most confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of China.