Selected article for: "age group and attributable risk"

Author: McDonald, S. A.; Miura, F.; Vos, E. R. A.; van Boven, M.; de Melker, H. E.; van der Klis, F. R. M.; van Binnendijk, R. S.; den Hartog, G.; Wallinga, J.
Title: Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of a nationwide serosurvey in the Netherlands
  • Cord-id: o56qpach
  • Document date: 2021_3_31
  • ID: o56qpach
    Snippet: Background. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic - and whether this proportion is age-dependent - are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed, or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods. Based on a large population-based sero
    Document: Background. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic - and whether this proportion is age-dependent - are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed, or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods. Based on a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May 2020 in the Netherlands (n=3147), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. Results. Using age-aggregated data, the estimated AP was 70% (95% CI: 65-77%). The estimated AP decreased with age, from 80% (95% CI: 67-100%) for the <20 years age-group, to 55% (95% CI: 48-68%) for the 70+ years age-group. Conclusion. Whereas the 'crude' AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.

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