Modeling COVID-19 latent prevalence to assess a public health intervention at a state and regional scale

Philip J. Turk; Shih-Hsiung Chou; Marc A. Kowalkowski; Pooja P. Palmer; Jennifer S. Priem; Melanie D. Spencer; Yhenneko J. Taylor; Andrew D. McWilliams

Summarizing the effect of the intervention, the doubling time for both locations is substantially slower after the intervention, with the CRI doubling time estimate (4.70 days) now being greater than for NC (4.01 days). The stay-at-home orders strongly appear to be working as intended as the infection curves for both locations are now becoming flatter (and shrinking), with peak infection prevalence now being pushed towards mid-May (Figure 7 , Figure 8 , Table 3 ), both location's recovery curves starting to fall (Figure 9, Figure 10) , and measurable intervention effects on the hazard ratio and R0 (Table 2 ). It is interesting to note that our results match rigorous Monte Carlo simulation studies we conducted weeks beforehand.