Author: ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart
Title: Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: fsjze3t2_56
Snippet: Our analysis suggests that quarantine greatly reduced the number of cases and deaths seen in Hubei's COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, while quarantine does not appear in the representation of R 0 , it still indirectly reduces R 0 . We also saw that the dynamics of the outbreak is very sensitive to the quarantine rate s q and contact rate β, as indicated by our sensitivity analysis. The basic reproductive number is estimated as 5.49 and the study .....
Document: Our analysis suggests that quarantine greatly reduced the number of cases and deaths seen in Hubei's COVID-19 outbreak. In addition, while quarantine does not appear in the representation of R 0 , it still indirectly reduces R 0 . We also saw that the dynamics of the outbreak is very sensitive to the quarantine rate s q and contact rate β, as indicated by our sensitivity analysis. The basic reproductive number is estimated as 5.49 and the study shows that any change in β or i q directly affects the basic reproductive number.
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