Author: Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell
Title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Document date: 2020_1_24
ID: mt8h4rk5_34
Snippet: Earlier novel coronavirus (SARS and MERS-CoV) outbreaks found evidence for substantial heterogeneity in reproductive numbers between individuals (Chowell et al., 2004; Bauch et al., 2005; Cauchemez et al., 2016) . In our analysis, we assume that there is little heterogeneity in reproductive numbers and this assumption may change our estimated reproductive number. Additionally, 0 estimates tend to be reduced as case information accumulates, though.....
Document: Earlier novel coronavirus (SARS and MERS-CoV) outbreaks found evidence for substantial heterogeneity in reproductive numbers between individuals (Chowell et al., 2004; Bauch et al., 2005; Cauchemez et al., 2016) . In our analysis, we assume that there is little heterogeneity in reproductive numbers and this assumption may change our estimated reproductive number. Additionally, 0 estimates tend to be reduced as case information accumulates, though control measures may also be introduced during these periods. As is true for any modelling analysis of surveillance data, our estimate of 0 may also reflect the dynamics of surveillance effort and reporting rather than just the dynamics of the epidemic.
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