Author: Zhanshan (Sam) Ma
Title: A Simple Mathematical Model for Estimating the Inflection Points of COVID-19 Outbreaks Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: fttqmts4_10
Snippet: A hallmark of coronaviruses outbreaks seems to be exponential or near exponential growth of infections, and the peak time and amplitude or the outbreak inflection points of the virus are of obvious importance both theoretically and practically. We address this problem with a trial-anderror strategy. We first conjectured that simple logistic growth model could be a possible solution since its asymptotic limit (K) might be used to approximate the i.....
Document: A hallmark of coronaviruses outbreaks seems to be exponential or near exponential growth of infections, and the peak time and amplitude or the outbreak inflection points of the virus are of obvious importance both theoretically and practically. We address this problem with a trial-anderror strategy. We first conjectured that simple logistic growth model could be a possible solution since its asymptotic limit (K) might be used to approximate the inflection points (Ma et al. 2009 ). We also tried sophisticated mathematical approaches for detecting tipping points . However, the applications of both logistic growth model and tipping point approaches failed to generate satisfactory results. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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