Prognostic factors in patients admitted to an urban teaching hospital with COVID-19 infection

Maguire, Donogh; Woods, Marylynne; Richards, Conor; Dolan, Ross; Veitch, Jesse Wilson; Sim, Wei M. J.; Kemmett, Olivia E. H.; Milton, David C.; Randall, Sophie L. W.; Bui, Ly D.; Goldmann, Nicola; Cameron, Allan; Laird, Barry; Talwar, Dinesh; Godber, Ian; Davidson, Alan; McMillan, Donald C.

BACKGROUND: Severe COVID-19 infection results in a systemic inflammatory response (SIRS). This SIRS response shares similarities to the changes observed during the peri-operative period that are recognised to be associated with the development of multiple organ failure. METHODS: Electronic patient records for patients who were admitted to an urban teaching hospital during the initial 7-week period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Glasgow, U.K. (17th March 2020—1st May 2020) were examined for routine clinical, laboratory and clinical outcome data. Age, sex, BMI and documented evidence of COVID-19 infection at time of discharge or death certification were considered minimal criteria for inclusion. RESULTS: Of the 224 patients who fulfilled the criteria for inclusion, 52 (23%) had died at 30-days following admission. COVID-19 related respiratory failure (75%) and multiorgan failure (12%) were the commonest causes of death recorded. Age ≥ 70 years (p < 0.001), past medical history of cognitive impairment (p ≤ 0.001), previous delirium (p < 0.001), clinical frailty score > 3 (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.05), heart failure (p < 0.01), national early warning score (NEWS) > 4 (p < 0.01), positive CXR (p < 0.01), and subsequent positive COVID-19 swab (p ≤ 0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality. CRP > 80 mg/L (p < 0.05), albumin < 35 g/L (p < 0.05), peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score (poGPS) (p < 0.05), lymphocytes < 1.5 10(9)/l (p < 0.05), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (p ≤ 0.001), haematocrit (< 0.40 L/L (male)/ < 0.37 L/L (female)) (p ≤ 0.01), urea > 7.5 mmol/L (p < 0.001), creatinine > 130 mmol/L (p < 0.05) and elevated urea: albumin ratio (< 0.001) were also associated with 30-day mortality. On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 70 years (O.R. 3.9, 95% C.I. 1.4–8.2, p < 0.001), past medical history of heart failure (O.R. 3.3, 95% C.I. 1.2–19.3, p < 0.05), NEWS > 4 (O.R. 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.1–4.4, p < 0.05), positive initial CXR (O.R. 0.4, 95% C.I. 0.2–0.9, p < 0.05) and poGPS (O.R. 2.3, 95% C.I. 1.1–4.4, p < 0.05) remained independently associated with 30-day mortality. Among those patients who tested PCR COVID-19 positive (n = 122), age ≥ 70 years (O.R. 4.7, 95% C.I. 2.0—11.3, p < 0.001), past medical history of heart failure (O.R. 4.4, 95% C.I. 1.2–20.5, p < 0.05) and poGPS (O.R. 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.1–5.1, p < 0.05) remained independently associated with 30-days mortality. CONCLUSION: Age ≥ 70 years and severe systemic inflammation as measured by the peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score are independently associated with 30-day mortality among patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 infection.