Author: Zhanshan (Sam) Ma
Title: A Simple Mathematical Model for Estimating the Inflection Points of COVID-19 Outbreaks Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: fttqmts4_4
Snippet: Investigating the inflection points of infectious disease outbreaks including the ongoing coronaviruses pandemic falls under the domain of tipping points and critical transitions (Veraart et al. 2012 , Scheffer et al. 2009 . However, in a pre-experiment analysis of the existing datasets of COVID-19 infections, we failed to detect any tipping points (inflection points). We conjecture that the failure may have to do with the insufficiently long dur.....
Document: Investigating the inflection points of infectious disease outbreaks including the ongoing coronaviruses pandemic falls under the domain of tipping points and critical transitions (Veraart et al. 2012 , Scheffer et al. 2009 . However, in a pre-experiment analysis of the existing datasets of COVID-19 infections, we failed to detect any tipping points (inflection points). We conjecture that the failure may have to do with the insufficiently long duration of data collections. We then also tried some simple epidemiological modeling approaches such as simple logistic model (e.g., Ma et al. 2009 ) but still failed to achieve satisfactory results.
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