A simple method to quantify country-specific effects of COVID-19 containment measures

Morten Gram Pedersen; Matteo Meneghini

The COVID-19 disease due to the SARS-nCov2 coronavirus is spreading rapidly across the globe since its outbreak in China, and was declared a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 . After the first severe patient was brought to the hospital of Codogno, Italy on February 20, 2020, and subsequently tested positive for SARS-nCov2, a rapidly increasing number of patients have been identified, initially in Northern Italy and later in the rest of the country and Europe. Italy is the most affected Western country, with more than 130.000 1 confirmed cases, a death toll of ∼16.000, and the first to implement drastic measures in an attempt to contain the disease. Since then, most other European countries, the USA and Canada, have implemented similar restrictions, ranging from school closures, banning of recreational activities and large events, to complete lockdown. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives, it is necessary to analyze COVID-19 data carefully to investigate if and how the limitations in societal activities affect the disease dynamics.