Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey

ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart

The quarantine decidedly reduces the number of cases and deaths. Increasing (or decreasing) the speed of movement from the susceptible class to the quarantine class by about 10% would double (or half) the number of cases and deaths due to the outbreak (This speed of movement is controlled by the rate s q ). Of course, the efficiency of the quarantine is also very important. In our model, the efficiency of the quarantine measured by the reduction rate, r. The reduction rate shows how much reduction is effected in the contact of COVID-19 thanks to the quarantine. Based on our sensitivity analysis, this parameter is very important (see Figure 6 ). Our model shows that the quarantine in Hubei was almost perfect since it caused about 98.9 percent reduction in the contact rate of COVID-19.