Selected article for: "modeling study and transmission rate"
Author: Michal Ben-Nun; Pete Riley; James Turtle; David P. Bacon; Steven Riley
Title: National and Regional Influenza-Like-Illness Forecasts for the USA
  • Document date: 2018_4_27
    • ID: cheiabv0_56
    Snippet: Models that included humidity forcing performed better on average in our analysis of all 546 historical data than equivalent models that did not include those terms, especially for 547 the forecasting of ILI 1-to 4-weeks ahead [35] . However, we did not see similar support 548 for the inclusion of school vacation terms improving accuracy, which has been suggested 549 in a retrospective forecasting study at smaller spatial scales (by this group) [.....
    Document: Models that included humidity forcing performed better on average in our analysis of all 546 historical data than equivalent models that did not include those terms, especially for 547 the forecasting of ILI 1-to 4-weeks ahead [35] . However, we did not see similar support 548 for the inclusion of school vacation terms improving accuracy, which has been suggested 549 in a retrospective forecasting study at smaller spatial scales (by this group) [36] . The The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/309021 doi: bioRxiv preprint actual epidemiological week so that it was consistent with our presentation of accuracy 555 of other forecast targets. However, it may be more appropriate in some circumstances to 556 present accuracy of targets associated with the peak relative to the eventual peak [11] . 557 We found the experience of participating in a prospective forecasting challenge to be 558 different to that of a retrospective modeling study. The feedback in model accuracy was 559 much faster and the need for statistically robust measures of model likelihood or q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q EW44 and relate the local SH, q j (t), to the reproduction number as: The second term in Eq. 11 allows the transmission rate to depend on the weekly school 650 vacation schedule (p j (t)) and we implement is as:

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