A Closed-Loop Framework for Inference, Prediction and Control of SIR Epidemics on Networks

Hota, Ashish R.; Godbole, Jaydeep; Bhariya, Pradhuman; Par'e, Philip E

Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on networks. Our framework incorporates several key factors present in testing data, such as high risk individuals are more likely to undergo testing and infected individuals potentially act as asymptomatic carriers of the disease. We then present two tractable optimization problems to evaluate the trade-off between controlling the growth-rate of the epidemic and the cost of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our results provide compelling insights for policy-makers, including the significance of early testing and the emergence of a second wave of infections if NPIs are prematurely withdrawn.