Author: Ruian Ke; Steven Sanche; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nicholas Hengartner
Title: Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: mbdah9ey_62
Snippet: To further corroborates our results, we calculated the efforts needed to achieve three goals in 18 242 months: 1) virus containment, i.e. epidemic stops growing, 2) the total infected population is 243 10%, and 3) the total infected population is 1%. We found that the efforts needed are similar, 244 especially when the population of infected individuals is already more than 100 (Fig. 3C) , i.e. a 245 scenario that many cities around the globe are.....
Document: To further corroborates our results, we calculated the efforts needed to achieve three goals in 18 242 months: 1) virus containment, i.e. epidemic stops growing, 2) the total infected population is 243 10%, and 3) the total infected population is 1%. We found that the efforts needed are similar, 244 especially when the population of infected individuals is already more than 100 (Fig. 3C) , i.e. a 245 scenario that many cities around the globe are facing now. For example, when an outbreak grows 246 at rate 0·29/day, the levels of efforts needed to achieve the three goals are between 84% and 86% 247 reduction in transmission; whereas when the growth rate is 0·19 /day, the levels of effort needed 248 are between 77% and 80% reduction. These high levels of reduction needed argue for very 249 strong and comprehensive intervention efforts implemented as soon as possible, no matter 250 whether the goal is containment or mitigation -a strategy reminiscent of the 'hit hard, hit early' 251 paradigm in treating HIV infection in a patient 16 . 252 253
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