Fear, Access, and the Real-Time Estimation of Etiological Parameters for Outbreaks of Novel Pathogens

Nina H Fefferman; Eric Lofgren; Nianpeng Li; Pieter Blue; David Weber; Abdul-Aziz Yakubu

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038729 doi: medRxiv preprint "flattening the curve" or relying on community protection, i.e. 'herd immunity') and their 361 subsequent evaluation hinge on accurate estimations of 0 R . While presented here with 362 constant rates to enable the analytic calculations, real-time estimations of 0 R are 363 frequently based on numerical solutions, rather than analytic calculations. In this case, the 364 expansion of precisely these equations to allow for α , δ , and λ to themselves be 365 dynamic functions of public perception and disease prevalence will enable vastly more 366 accurate understanding of real-time case incidence data. Work currently underway to try 367 and capture the functional forms of these responses in observed behaviors in the US will 368 hopefully allow us to extend these results very soon to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic 369