Selected article for: "calibrate model and model calibrate"
Author: Rendani R Mbuvha; Tshilidzi Marwala
Title: On Data-Driven Management of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Africa
  • Document date: 2020_4_10
    • ID: g5bhkd55_45
    Snippet: We have attempted to calibrate the SIR model for South Africa and estimate the required healthcare resources using the available literature on inference of infected population. The results show that using the midpoint initial conditions the infected population is expected to peak in: 71 days at R 0 = 2, in 42 days at R 0 = 3 and in 31 days at R 0 = 4. The corresponding estimated general hospital beds required capacities are at 7000 (R 0 = 2), 135.....
    Document: We have attempted to calibrate the SIR model for South Africa and estimate the required healthcare resources using the available literature on inference of infected population. The results show that using the midpoint initial conditions the infected population is expected to peak in: 71 days at R 0 = 2, in 42 days at R 0 = 3 and in 31 days at R 0 = 4. The corresponding estimated general hospital beds required capacities are at 7000 (R 0 = 2), 13500 (R 0 = 3) and 18000 (R 0 = 4). The estimated ICU capacity requirement is estimated at 2350 (R 0 = 2), 4500 (R 0 = 3) and 6000 (R 0 = 4).

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