On predicting the novel COVID-19 human infections by using Infectious Disease modelling method in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu during 2020

Arsath Abbasali Ayubali; Sara Roshini Satheesh

On the other hand, traditional epidemiological forecasting methods, such as laboratory-based surveillance and outbreak investigations were swiftly used to advise policy decisions makers during the As the COVID-19 is not an Indian born virus infection to human being and it has origin in China, the infection to the Tamil Nadu population must only via transmission, specifically through the travelers who are already infected of COVID-19 within the incubation period of 3-14 days. The possibility of infection in Tamil Nadu (TN) region also depends on the total numbers of travellers and the proportions that use air travel to reach any part of Tamil Nadu region since the initial discovery of the disease. Therefore, in order to manage the risks of residents of Tamil Nadu, a modified SIER method (one of the IDM methodology) is chosen to predict the number of infected cases of COVID-19 by applying the current available data from the Ministry of Health, Tamil Nadu, India.