Author: Narison, Stephan; Maltezos, Stavros
Title: Scrutinizing the spread of COVID-19 in Madagascar Cord-id: g4oe7f8l Document date: 2020_12_5
ID: g4oe7f8l
Snippet: We scrutinize the evolution of COVID-19 in Madagascar by comparing results from three approaches (cubic polynomial, semi-gaussian and gaussian-like models) which we use to provide an analytical form of the spread of the pandemic. In so doing, we introduce (for the first time) the ratio [Formula: see text] of the cumulative and daily numbers of infected persons over the corresponding one of tests which are expected to be less sensitive to the number of the tests because the credibility of the res
Document: We scrutinize the evolution of COVID-19 in Madagascar by comparing results from three approaches (cubic polynomial, semi-gaussian and gaussian-like models) which we use to provide an analytical form of the spread of the pandemic. In so doing, we introduce (for the first time) the ratio [Formula: see text] of the cumulative and daily numbers of infected persons over the corresponding one of tests which are expected to be less sensitive to the number of the tests because the credibility of the results based only on the absolute numbers often raises some criticisms. We also give and compare the effective reproduction number R(eff) from different approaches and with the ones of some European countries with a small number of population (Greece, Switzerland) and some other African countries. Finally, we show and comment the evolution of the total number of deaths and of the per cent number of cured persons and discuss the performance of the medical care.
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