Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_40
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021162 doi: medRxiv preprint even at modest contact tracing levels (Figure 4a ). More than 40% of these outbreaks were controlled with no contact tracing due to the combined effects of isolation of symptomatic cases and stochastic extinction. The probability of control dropped as the number of initial cases increased, and for 40 initial cases, even 80% contact tracing d.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021162 doi: medRxiv preprint even at modest contact tracing levels (Figure 4a ). More than 40% of these outbreaks were controlled with no contact tracing due to the combined effects of isolation of symptomatic cases and stochastic extinction. The probability of control dropped as the number of initial cases increased, and for 40 initial cases, even 80% contact tracing did not lead to 80% of simulations controlled within 3 months.
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