Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_41
Snippet: The delay from symptom onset to isolation played a major role in achieving control of outbreaks (Figure 4b ). At 80% of contacts traced, the probability of achieving control falls from 89% to 31% when there is a longer delay from onset to isolation. If there is no transmission before symptom onset then the probability of achieving control is higher for all values of contacts traced (Figure 4c) . The difference between 15% and 30% of transmission .....
Document: The delay from symptom onset to isolation played a major role in achieving control of outbreaks (Figure 4b ). At 80% of contacts traced, the probability of achieving control falls from 89% to 31% when there is a longer delay from onset to isolation. If there is no transmission before symptom onset then the probability of achieving control is higher for all values of contacts traced (Figure 4c) . The difference between 15% and 30% of transmission before symptoms had a marked effect on probability to control. We found this effect in all scenarios tested (supplementary Figure S4 ). Including only 10% of cases being asymptomatic resulted in a decreased probability that simulations were controlled by isolation and contact tracing for all values of contact tracing (Figure 4d ). For 80% of contacts traced, only 37% of outbreaks were controlled, compared with 89% without subclinical infection.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- long delay and marked effect: 1
- major role and marked effect: 1
- major role and onset long delay: 1
- major role and subclinical infection: 1, 2, 3
- major role and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- major role and symptom onset delay: 1, 2
- major role and symptom onset transmission: 1, 2, 3
- marked effect and onset long delay: 1
- marked effect and subclinical infection: 1
- marked effect and symptom onset: 1
- marked effect and symptom onset delay: 1
- marked effect and symptom onset transmission: 1
- onset long delay and subclinical infection: 1
- onset long delay and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- onset long delay and symptom onset delay: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- onset long delay and symptom onset transmission: 1, 2, 3
- subclinical infection and symptom onset: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
- subclinical infection and symptom onset delay: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- subclinical infection and symptom onset transmission: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date