Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_41
Snippet: The delay from symptom onset to isolation played a major role in achieving control of outbreaks (Figure 4b ). At 80% of contacts traced, the probability of achieving control falls from 89% to 31% when there is a longer delay from onset to isolation. If there is no transmission before symptom onset then the probability of achieving control is higher for all values of contacts traced (Figure 4c) . The difference between 15% and 30% of transmission .....
Document: The delay from symptom onset to isolation played a major role in achieving control of outbreaks (Figure 4b ). At 80% of contacts traced, the probability of achieving control falls from 89% to 31% when there is a longer delay from onset to isolation. If there is no transmission before symptom onset then the probability of achieving control is higher for all values of contacts traced (Figure 4c) . The difference between 15% and 30% of transmission before symptoms had a marked effect on probability to control. We found this effect in all scenarios tested (supplementary Figure S4 ). Including only 10% of cases being asymptomatic resulted in a decreased probability that simulations were controlled by isolation and contact tracing for all values of contact tracing (Figure 4d ). For 80% of contacts traced, only 37% of outbreaks were controlled, compared with 89% without subclinical infection.
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