Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_53
Snippet: We intentionally simplified our model to determine the effect of contact tracing and isolation on the control of outbreaks under different scenarios of transmission. However, as more data becomes available, the model can be updated, or tailored to particular public health contexts. It is likely that the robustness of control measures is affected both by differences in transmission between countries but also by the concurrent number of cases that .....
Document: We intentionally simplified our model to determine the effect of contact tracing and isolation on the control of outbreaks under different scenarios of transmission. However, as more data becomes available, the model can be updated, or tailored to particular public health contexts. It is likely that the robustness of control measures is affected both by differences in transmission between countries but also by the concurrent number of cases that require contact tracing in each scenario. Practically, there is likely to be an upper bound on the number of cases that can be traced, and case isolation is likely to be imperfect 33 . We reported the maximum number of weekly cases during controlled outbreaks but the capacity of response efforts may vary.
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