Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_54
Snippet: We explored a range of scenarios informed by the latest evidence on transmission of 2019-nCoV. Similar analyses using branching models have already been used to analyse the Wuhan outbreak to find plausible ranges for the initial exposure event size and the basic reproduction number 15, 19 . Our analysis expands on this by including infectiousness before the onset of symptoms, case isolation, explicit modelling of case incubation periods and time .....
Document: We explored a range of scenarios informed by the latest evidence on transmission of 2019-nCoV. Similar analyses using branching models have already been used to analyse the Wuhan outbreak to find plausible ranges for the initial exposure event size and the basic reproduction number 15, 19 . Our analysis expands on this by including infectiousness before the onset of symptoms, case isolation, explicit modelling of case incubation periods and time to infectiousness. A key area of uncertainty is if and for how long individuals are infectious before symptom onset, and if asymptomatic or subclinical infection occurs. Both are likely to make the outbreak harder to control 24 .
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