Modeling the Comparative Impact of Individual Quarantine vs. Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19

Corey M Peak; Rebecca Kahn; Yonatan H Grad; Lauren M Childs; Ruoran Li; Marc Lipsitch; Caroline O Buckee

Under both serial interval scenarios, in a low feasibility setting, the reproductive number was rarely brought below one under either individual quarantine or active monitoring, though a median reduction in the reproductive number of 21.0% and 13.6%, respectively for serial interval scenario 2, can still meaningfully slow the growth of an epidemic; for serial interval scenario 1, active monitoring resulted in only a 3% reduction in the reproductive number while individual quarantine resulted in a 17% reduction. If the epidemic continues to grow, however, the feasibility and social acceptability of quarantining individuals becomes a crucial consideration. In these circumstances, complementary interventions such as social distancing and pharmaceutical interventions may be needed if efficient contact tracing and rapid isolation are not readily achievable, regardless of the extent of presymptomatic transmission.