Author: Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell
Title: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Document date: 2020_1_24
ID: mt8h4rk5_28
Snippet: Our estimates of 0 are broadly consistent with early estimates from other groups: 2.0-3.3 (Majumder and Mandl, 2020); 2.6 (uncertainty range 1.5-3.5) (Imai et al., 2020b) ; 2.92 (95% CI 2.28, 3.67) (Liu et al., 2020) ; 2.2 (90% interval: 1.4-3.8) (Riou and Althaus, 2020) . Sources of discrepancies may be due to model differences and differences in the contribution of specific types of data to our estimates. We believe that our estimates are sligh.....
Document: Our estimates of 0 are broadly consistent with early estimates from other groups: 2.0-3.3 (Majumder and Mandl, 2020); 2.6 (uncertainty range 1.5-3.5) (Imai et al., 2020b) ; 2.92 (95% CI 2.28, 3.67) (Liu et al., 2020) ; 2.2 (90% interval: 1.4-3.8) (Riou and Althaus, 2020) . Sources of discrepancies may be due to model differences and differences in the contribution of specific types of data to our estimates. We believe that our estimates are slightly elevated compared to others due to the inclusion of cases from other locations within China other than Wuhan. However, it is important to note that our point estimate is consistent with all others uncertainty intervals, all indicating sustained growth of cases.
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