Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell

Current clinical and epidemiological data are insufficient to understand the full extent of the transmission potential of the epidemic. Estimates in this manuscript are highly uncertain due to uncertainty about the timing and natural history of cases, the impact of changes in reporting over the course of the outbreak and the potential impact of responses to cases among other sources. The outbreak comes at a time when there is a substantial increase in travel volume within as well as in and out of China around the Lunar New Year on 25 January 2019. Over 3 billion passenger journeys were predicted for the period between 10 January and 18 February (CGTN, 2020) . In an effort to contain the outbreak, travel restrictions were imposed on Wuhan from 23 January, and have since expanded to 12 other cities, and large social gatherings cancelled (New York Times, 2020).