Modeling the impact of human mobility and travel restrictions on the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan

Meng-Chun Chang; Rebecca Kahn; Yu-An Li; Cheng-Sheng Lee; Caroline O Buckee; Hsiao-Han Chang

To assess the potential effect of travel restrictions at multiple levels, we modeled either intra-city travel reductions, inter-city travel reductions, or a combination of both travel reductions ("overall reduction" in texts and figures) for 1, 2, 3, or 6 months or for the whole period of time. Travel reductions started from the beginning of the simulations or when there were 10, 20, 30, 50, or 100 accumulated infections. The proportion of reduction is denoted by G. In the contact model, intracity reduction was modeled by R0ii*(1-G) for all i, and intercity reduction was modeled by R0ij*(1-G) for all i not equal to j. In the residence model, intracity reduction was modeled by R0*(1-G) and intercity reduction was modeled by Pij*(1-G) for all i not equal to j and Pii +(1-Pii)*G for all i.