Author: Abdullah Ucar; Seyma Arslan; Muhammed Yusuf Ozdemir
Title: Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand In Turkey, A Modelling Study Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: cut3vf2c_66
Snippet: In the second and third scenarios, the expected number of cases and deaths are also calculated according to whether the society is partially (2nd scenario) or fully (3rd scenario) compliant with the social interventions applied. Predictions show that 16 million people can be prevented from being infected and 100,000 deaths can be prevented by full compliance with the measures taken. With the measures that Turkey has taken so far, the highest expe.....
Document: In the second and third scenarios, the expected number of cases and deaths are also calculated according to whether the society is partially (2nd scenario) or fully (3rd scenario) compliant with the social interventions applied. Predictions show that 16 million people can be prevented from being infected and 100,000 deaths can be prevented by full compliance with the measures taken. With the measures that Turkey has taken so far, the highest expected need for ICU beds is taken under the existing capacity and ICU bed capacity is not exceeded in case of realization of both scenarios. In the fourth scenario, with the realization of the general curfew, it is predicted that the total number of cases will be 600 thousand and the number of deaths will be less than 15 thousand.
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