Author: Christopher Adolph; Kenya Amano; Bree Bang-Jensen; Nancy Fullman; John Wilkerson
Title: Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: g8lsrojl_4
Snippet: In particular, the exponential growth of cases of an emergent virus has unique implications for policy making. Estimates of the uncontrolled doubling-time of COVID-19 cases vary and are complicated by the slow rollout of effective testing in the US, but many studies find doubling times in the range from four to seven days.(9; 10; 3; 2) These estimates correspond to alarming growth rates of 10.4% to 26.0% per day. Even if the true doubling time of.....
Document: In particular, the exponential growth of cases of an emergent virus has unique implications for policy making. Estimates of the uncontrolled doubling-time of COVID-19 cases vary and are complicated by the slow rollout of effective testing in the US, but many studies find doubling times in the range from four to seven days.(9; 10; 3; 2) These estimates correspond to alarming growth rates of 10.4% to 26.0% per day. Even if the true doubling time of infections prior to social distancing is as long as a week, delaying these measures just three days would, all else equal, raise the eventual peak number of cases by more than 30%, potentially increasing total deaths by thousands or more in a given state.
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