Integrated vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions based strategies in Ontario, Canada, as a case study: a mathematical modelling study

Betti, Matthew; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Heffernan, Jane M.; Kong, Jude; Raad, Angie

Recently, two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine products have been authorized in Canada. It is of crucial importance to model an integrated/combined package of non-pharmaceutical (physical/social distancing) and pharmaceutical (immunization) public health control measures. A modified epidemiological, compartmental SIR model was used and fit to the cumulative COVID-19 case data for the province of Ontario, Canada, from 8 September 2020 to 8 December 2020. Different vaccine roll-out strategies were simulated until 75% of the population was vaccinated, including a no-vaccination scenario. We compete these vaccination strategies with relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were supposed to remain enforced and began to be relaxed on 31 January, 31 March or 1 May 2021. Based on projections from the data and long-term extrapolation of scenarios, relaxing the public health measures implemented by re-opening too early would cause any benefits of vaccination to be lost by increasing case numbers, increasing the effective reproduction number above 1 and thus increasing the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is, instead, delayed and 75% of the Ontarian population gets vaccinated by the end of the year, re-opening can occur with very little risk. Relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions by re-opening and vaccine deployment is a careful balancing act. Our combination of model projections from data and simulation of different strategies and scenarios, can equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with projections concerning the COVID-19 epidemiological trend, helping them in the decision-making process.