Author: Alessandro Rovetta; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula
Title: Modelling the epidemiological trend and behavior of COVID-19 in Italy Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: 05m50voc_5
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 doi: medRxiv preprint used. Since the Chinese situation has provided the most information, great statistical importance was given to the Sars-Cov-2 evolution in the Hubei region, with the implicit assumption of "very significant local mutations" absence necessary for generalizing the reports through classical inference. The st.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 doi: medRxiv preprint used. Since the Chinese situation has provided the most information, great statistical importance was given to the Sars-Cov-2 evolution in the Hubei region, with the implicit assumption of "very significant local mutations" absence necessary for generalizing the reports through classical inference. The statistics collected on virus mortality were first divided by age group and then recalibrated on the Italian demography, in order to be as representative as possible. To do this, we considered the most representative population of COVID-19 cases reported between March, 1-14, 2020, the number of infected persons necessary to approach the required mortality rate was added to the correct values.
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