Author: Rosario Megna
Title: First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: cxmw7bfu_23
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044628 doi: medRxiv preprint It is also necessary to consider the intrinsic limitations of this study. First of all, data was not always updated on a daily basis by each Regional Authority. Moreover, we have to consider that the number of infected people is underestimated, since there are many undetected asymptomatic individuals. In addi.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044628 doi: medRxiv preprint It is also necessary to consider the intrinsic limitations of this study. First of all, data was not always updated on a daily basis by each Regional Authority. Moreover, we have to consider that the number of infected people is underestimated, since there are many undetected asymptomatic individuals. In addition to this, many individuals died without the possibility of checking if they were actually infected and therefore not recorded as such. Finally, the factors that determine the trend of the epidemic could change without respecting the symmetry of the forecasted model.
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