Author: Robert L Shuler
Title: Partial unlock model for COVID-19 or similar pandemic averts medical and economic disaster Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: lmmrnitr_33
Snippet: In the 3/25 and 3/29 cases in Figure 1 , herd immunity is incomplete. In the 3/21 case it appears 155 90% of the population is infected because of numerical overshoot during the rapid rise. One day 156 quantization may not be enough resolution, the rise is so rapid. The extent to which such an overshoot 157 might happen in reality (it might) is not of concern to us since this case will not be allowed. In the 158 following cases it will be apparen.....
Document: In the 3/25 and 3/29 cases in Figure 1 , herd immunity is incomplete. In the 3/21 case it appears 155 90% of the population is infected because of numerical overshoot during the rapid rise. One day 156 quantization may not be enough resolution, the rise is so rapid. The extent to which such an overshoot 157 might happen in reality (it might) is not of concern to us since this case will not be allowed. In the 158 following cases it will be apparent that where a slower rise is allowed due to partial lockdown, the total 159 cases peaks around 70% just where it should for R0=3. 160 Figure 2 shows two different dates for total unlock, beginning with the day after the current 161 extension of lockdown through April 30 th . The second scenario begins 6 months later on November 1. 162
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