Forecasting COVID-19 impact in India using pandemic waves Nonlinear Growth Models

Pavan Kumar; Ram Kumar Singh; Chintan Nanda; Himangshu Kalita; Shashikanta Patairiya; Yagya Datt Sharma; Meenu Rani; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula

The drop-down in the recovery rates will reach around 501 (95% CI: 245 to 758) through ARIMA model (Figure3(a) ), versus by the end of April 2020: 278 (95% CI: 116 to 380) for Richard's model (Figure3(b) ) SIR model represents the incidence (infected), suspectable and Recovered cases using ARIMA forecast data further spread of COVID tends cases to decrease in the epidemic incidence cases in India. After the above analysis and generation of models for prediction of COVID-19, it has been observed that the ARIMA model is more suited for prediction than comparing to Richard's, and the output has come near to accuracy as validation. It can be identified as a very frightening future outcome; here, in this case, we predicted an overall analysis up to April 29, 2020, which defines fewer crises for India.