Author: Kollepara, Pratyush K.; Siegenfeld, Alexander F.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer
Title: Modeling complex systems: A case study of compartmental models in epidemiology Cord-id: mq8h6qgr Document date: 2021_10_6
ID: mq8h6qgr
Snippet: Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less often justify their validity in the specific context in which they are being used. Our purpose is not to argue for specific alternatives or modifications to compartmental models, but rather to show how assumptions can constrain model outcomes to a narrow portion o
Document: Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less often justify their validity in the specific context in which they are being used. Our purpose is not to argue for specific alternatives or modifications to compartmental models, but rather to show how assumptions can constrain model outcomes to a narrow portion of the wide landscape of potential epidemic behaviors. This concrete examination of well-known models also serves to illustrate general principles of modeling that can be applied in other contexts.
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