Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Jonathan M Read; Jessica RE Bridgen; Derek AT Cummings; Antonia Ho; Chris P Jewell

Our estimates of the basic reproductive number for this novel coronavirus are comparable to most estimates reported for SARS and MERS-CoV, but similar to some estimates from subsets of data in the early period of SARS. For the SARS coronavirus, estimates of the mean reproductive number ranged from 1.1 to 4.2 with most estimates between 2 and 3 (Bauch et al., 2005) . These estimates represent a range of methods and settings. Some estimates come from data that mixes time periods before and after control. Estimates of 0 also varied based on assumed serial intervals (e.g. (Lipsitch et al., 2003) estimated 0 ranging from 2.2 to 3.6 for serial intervals of 8 to 12 days (9). Another study (Bauch et al., 2005) reviewed sources of variation in basic reproductive numbers of SARS and noted that those locations in which outbreaks occurred, 0 was approximately 3. Estimates from MERS-CoV were uniformly lower, with estimates from Saudi Arabia having a mean of less than 1 (~0.5) but exhibited large temporal variability with increases in some periods of time particularly in healthcare settings (Cauchemez et al., 2016) .