Management strategies in a SEIR model of COVID 19 community spread

Radulescu, Anca; Cavanagh, Kieran

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID-19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management, despite (or possibly because of) the fact that the outbreak is an unprecedented global threat. On the positive side, enough is currently known about the epidemic process to permit the construction of mathematical predictive models. We construct and analyze here one first step: that of adapting a traditional SEIR epidemic model to the specific dynamic compartments and epidemic parameters of COVID-19, as it spreads in an age-heterogeneous community. We analyze the current management strategy of the epidemic course (travel bans, service closures and interruptions, social distancing). We generate predictions, and assess the efficiency of these control measures, in the context in which their sustainability is currently being questioned.