Long-term virus evolution in nature

Domingo, Esteban

Viruses spread to give rise to epidemics and pandemics, and some key parameters that include virus and host population numbers determine virus persistence or extinction in nature. Viruses evolve at different rates depending on the polymerase copying fidelity during genome replication and a number of environmental influences. Calculated rates of evolution in nature vary depending on the time interval between virus isolations. In particular, intrahost evolution is generally more rapid that interhost evolution, and several possible mechanisms for this difference are considered. The mechanisms by which the error-prone viruses evolve are very unlikely to render the operation of a molecular clock (constant rate of incorporation of mutations in the evolving genomes), although a clock is assumed in many calculations. Several computational tools permit the alignment of viral sequences and the establishment of phylogenetic relationships among viruses. The evolution of the virus in the form of dynamic mutant clouds in each infected individual, together with multiple environmental parameters renders the emergence and reemergence of viral pathogens an unpredictable event, another facet of biological complexity.