30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study

Giacomelli, A.; Ridolfo, A. L.; Milazzo, L.; Oreni, L.; Bernacchia, D.; Siano, M.; Bonazzetti, C.; Schiuma, M.; Covizzi, A.; Passerini, M.; Piscaglia, M.; Coen, M.; Gubertini, G.; Rizzardini, G.; Cogliati, C.; Brambilla, A. M.; Colombo, R.; Castelli, A.; Rech, R.; Riva, A.; Torre, A.; Meroni, L.; Rusconi, S.; Antinori, S.; Galli, M.

Background: Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. Methods: This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Results: Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50 mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Conclusions: Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.