Selected article for: "demographic structure and epidemic contain"
Author: Patrick Brown; Prabhat Jha
Title: Mortality from COVID-19 in 12 countries and 6 states of the United States
  • Document date: 2020_4_22
    • ID: 2r4uty9g_16
    Snippet: We used the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm within the Stan software. 7 From each posterior sample of the model parameters, we computed the intensity λi(t) and simulated potential future death counts from the negative binomial distribution. We calculated predictions envelopes, which contain the entire true epidemic curve from the samples by applying the methodology of Myllymäki et al. 19 We chose probability distributions to generate simulat.....
    Document: We used the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm within the Stan software. 7 From each posterior sample of the model parameters, we computed the intensity λi(t) and simulated potential future death counts from the negative binomial distribution. We calculated predictions envelopes, which contain the entire true epidemic curve from the samples by applying the methodology of Myllymäki et al. 19 We chose probability distributions to generate simulated epidemic curves consistent with data from Italy and Hubei, China, 1-3 and with SARS and MERS outbreaks. 8, 9 The Supplementary Appendix provides the prior distributions for all parameters, as well as simulated epidemics for a population with Italy's demographic structure.

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