Mortality from COVID-19 in 12 countries and 6 states of the United States

Patrick Brown; Prabhat Jha

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069161 doi: medRxiv preprint adolescents. 20 Figure 1 shows the results for six European countries with over 2,000 COVID-19 deaths to date and the USA. Each blue dot indicates daily actual deaths. The dark line is the median model projection and the red shaded area represents credible intervals. Mortality has already peaked in Italy and Spain (March 29 and April 1, respectively). The Netherlands and France next peaked on April 5 and 7, respectively, followed by Belgium (April 9) and Germany (April 13). The USA and UK will reach their peaks on April 18 and 21, respectively. Table 1 . The USA can expect 49,000-249,000 deaths (median 86,000). Mortality ranges are 25,000-109,000 (median 46,000) in the UK; 23,000-31,000 (median 26,000) in Italy; 21,000-37,000 (median 26,000) in France and 21,000-32,000 (median 25,000) in Spain. Ranges for other countries are as shown. Collectively, across the 12 countries, the range of deaths is 167,000 to 593,000 (median 253,000). The lowest value would be . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.